We’re often asked how prices are calculated on rare bars and this article will attempt to clear up some of that up. Ultimately a bar is worth what a seller is willing to sell it for and what a buyer is willing to pay – often times, that can be difficult to calculate, particularly with items that trade infrequently.
1. Prior Sales: Auction Results
While auctions are not timeless and reflect the specific set of circumstances around a given point in time with a given set of participants, they can provide a useful barometer. Auctions allows multiple parties to compete in an open environment allowing the highest bidder to take home the prize, thereby realizing an effective market price. The market price is determined by the amount the buyer is willing to pay which includes the hammer price plus the sales commission of the auction house. Often times, there are no reserves at auction and the seller will let the piece go at any price. Sometimes, a reserve is set and in such cases if the buyers do not meet the minimum required bid, the lot will be “passed”.
While reserves can help protect an item from going too low, they can also discourage bidding and have a negative effect on the final price.
For the most part we’ve done our best on this site to document all public auction results pertaining to each specific ingot in order to help provide as much information, context, and transparency as possible. While observing these auction results over time, it may become apparent to some and confusing to others as to how certain items have sold for so little or in some rare cases how some items have sold for so much. If one isn’t aware of the market dynamics and forces that were going on at the time of a given auction it may look strange and cause someone to draw some inaccurate or incomplete conclusions. When observing past auctions on ingots its important to take this into account and take some auction results with a grain of salt.
Some of the market forces that have impacted the prices of ingots over time in strange and inconsistent ways include:
- John J. Ford Jr. and his extended legacy of producing/enabling fantasy ingots.
- Contemporary articles from various authors with faulty, invalid, or inaccurate assessments
- “The “Franklin Hoard” book by Karl Moulton
- Lack of ultimate market clarity on what is or was real and what was fake or counterfeit
- Personal issues affecting the demand side amidst the top buyers including death and divorce
With the advent and drastic rise of collectibility of modern vintage (read: 1970’s and beyond) as well as the acceptance of knowingly collecting fantasy ingots, suddenly the world mixed metal 19th century ingots had a new crop of buyers chasing after them, gradually replacing the waning demand of the previous decade.
2. Precious Metal: Gold vs. Silver
Due to the fact that Gold is more rare, more sought after, and more desirable than Silver and since there are far fewer Gold 19th century bars that have survived, they are generally worth substantially more than their Silver counterparts.
Gold ingots are the epitome of vintage bar collecting. Based on the lack of availability, some collectors have pursued Ford fantasy pieces as the next best thing. Despite there being over 40 fantasy ingot types, at least 20 of them remain collectible in private hands, providing a baseline of unique pieces to chase.
The degree to which gold ingots are worth more than silver are based on a variety of other factors, but a large one is rarity – the category description to follow.
3. Rarity and Availability
As common sense would indicate, the scarcity of a given ingot plays a significant role in its ultimate price and value. Silver Ingots such as those by Conrad Wiegand since there are 20 known whereas ingots from Assayers where only one is known trade at a substantial premium. That being said, the gold Wiegand ingots offset the rarity because there are so few 19th century gold ingots to begin with so the precious metal makeup substantially outweighs the Assayer’s stamp because of a different kind of rarity.
While we don’t have the original mintages of any of the ingots since there are no remaining records, we can rely on the surviving population to provide a useful metric on scarcity.
While we have referenced this chart in our article on 19th century ingot population, perhaps it’s useful to review the Assayers and their population relative to one another. Note that the numbers quickly jump into the single digits, and even lower such that the majority of the Assayers are inherently rare in their own right!
4. Condition & Eye Appeal
The visual aesthetics and eye appeal of a bar play a big role in its desirability even to the potential exclusion of more important factors such as rarity. In effect, the eye appeal of a bar can play a significant role in its realized price and value because often times collectors are more drawn to how something looks over its history or age, as evidenced by the popularity of Ford fantasy ingots.
Perceived beauty is an intangible factor and can be different between collectors, but generally there are some consistent factors such as complexity of the piece, the level of design, the overall stamp, and the condition of the bar itself.
A bar that has been heavily worn or scratched will not do as well as a bar that looks to have been immaculately preserved and in near mint condition. Furthermore, other distracting marks may take away from the value such as drill holes (made after production), test cuts, dents, excessive wear, scratches, weak stamps, or lower quality craftsmanship.
Conversely: strong stamps, centering and placement, nice pour lines, great luster, toning, and other factors can count towards an increase in eye appeal and overall value.
5. Age and Dating
With very few exceptions, the older the better. Ingots from the 1860’s are preferred over ingots from the 1880’s all else being equal. More ingots exist from the latter part of the 19th century than those from the gold rush era or civil war era. Early ingots are prized amongst collectors.
Furthermore, dated ingots are worth more than their non-dated counterparts. That is, an ingot with a specific year stamped (or date) is particularly desirable because it leaves no ambiguity as to when it was made, unless it is a fantasy piece. In some cases through careful study and research, ingots can be dated to within a few years or even the exact year that they were likely made although having it directly imprinted is always preferable.
Ingots that are dated AND early are particularly sought after.
6. Monetary or Monetized
Monetary ingots are by far the most valued and are extremely rare. Monetary ingots are usually in round numbers (no decimals) and were definitively used as actual currency. These ingots were an effectively replacement for coins and were “money”. The $50 slugs were ingots (later reclassified as coins), as were $16 moffats, and so was the $18 meyers ingot which is the king of them all. Monetary ingots are extremely rare and highly sought after.
Assay ingots are usually monetized but not necessarily monetary. Assays measure the metallic content and stamp the calculated purity and value onto the bar itself.
7. Assay vs. Presentation
In 19th Century ingots there are primarily two classes of bars, and then within that, some sub-categories: Assays (often functional used in commerce, and often monetized) and Presentation Pieces (used to commemorate a person, place, or event).
At the top of the heap are far and away, Assays. These can be government Assays or ones made by private Assayers such as those working for a company or mine. Assay pieces are higher up in the pecking order than presentation pieces because of their inherent function and purpose.
For a more extended summary on the differences between assays and presentation, see: Ingot Styles and Sources.
In the realm of Presentation ingots there are several classes or tiers, in order of greatest to least importance and value:
Mine Ingots
Often pieces used for investors, or to commemorate a specific mine and the production or some direct tie.
Dated and Historic Ingots
Used to remember or commemorate a historic event or location, often with local or national significance.
Personal Ingots
Not necessarily geographically significant, but instead celebrating a particular individual or personal event.
Other Types
There are other styles that might not fit into the above but would still be considered presentation ingots such as watch-fobs, plaques, plates, and more!
8. Location
While most ingots have ties to Nevada and the Comstock lode, there are several other states that also have ties to 19th century ingots as well. In fact, less common cities or states can be quite desirable to collectors since they are not seen nearly as often as the typical “Nevada” bar. Some examples include Arizona (6), Oregon (4), Montana (3?), Utah, etc.
9. Unique Characteristics
Other elements that can make a piece stand out will raise its value such as being the “only” of something, the earliest, the smallest, etc.
On presentation pieces the amount of work put into the engraving can also substantially affect its value. Was it engraved on all sides? How intricate is the design?
Conclusion
Based on the aforementioned categories, one can create a basic rubric whereby bars are judged and valued. Certainly not all bars are created equally or treated equally over time, but a basic framework can be useful when measuring how they can stack up to one another as the list below indicates.
- Auction History
- Precious Metal: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Lead
- Rarity / Population
- Condition
- Eye Appeal
- Age
- Dated
- Monetized or Monetary
- Assay vs Presentation (Mine, Historic, Personal, Other)
- Location
- Unique Characteristics